I had been under self-hibernation mode going underneath the big shelves of Nifty charts and trends which I don't actually understand much. I don't call it a research just not to kill the word but would love to call it re-search, since whatever I did was search something again in Google which someone else would have definitely searched before.
Would like to share the detailed re-search report of Nifty for last 10 years which may not be appropriate as some what call it but this is all what I could gather. Thought of sharing the whole process with you guys to let you know what I understood looking at all those Nifty charts.
Before going into the boring statistics...let me quote here a famous dialogue from Michael Douglas in Wall Street(1987) - "Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind and greed"
I would also say greed is good if it doesn't harm others and uplifts your life and status. By the way, I am not that greedy. Let me put the facts right on your face now rather than beating around.
The average monthly movement seen in Nifty is 35 points up or down as per last ten years stats. Keeping this average of +/- 35, there had been 39 months out of 118 months where there had been a downward movement. 25 months which had negligible effect on the market and a whopping 66 months with upside trend.
I later decided to take +/- 100 points as a base to identify noteworthy above average movement in markets. There were 23 months in last 10 years until October this year(2010) where market had negative movements higher than -100 points against 43 months which had significant upsides of +100 & above.
The trend makes me speculate the few things for the following months for my fellow traders. I am not a master at this but just a novice speculator :-).
Nov 2010 - Not great for buying. Good to hold.
Dec 2010 - Not great for buying. Good to Sell towards end.
Jan 2011 - Market would lose few points, risky to buy.
Feb 2011 - Market would lose few points, risky to buy. Good to start looking.
Mar 2011 - Market would lose few points, risky to buy. Start Buying if you can take risk.
Apr 2011 - Would be average without significant changes.
I don't want you to blindly follow my views but would expect you to do your own analysis before buying any stocks. The above ideas are on Nifty movement and not on any particular stock. Every stock has its own trend which you need to closely analyze if you are to buy it.
If we are to take the facts laid out above seriously.
I would say we could lay out our own strategies. To get the thought process started lets discuss few ideas.
1. Consider you bought your scrips during bull market.(Assuming its a good stock)
a. During Bear, keep accumulating if you can
b. During Bull, hold/sell as per your need/strategy
2. Consider you bought your scripts during bear market. (Again assuming its a good stock.)
a. During bull, hold/sell as per your need/strategy
b. During bear, keep accumulating if you can
Basic idea I wanted to share is that market data shows, keep accumulating for your own good...because there are more time to sell than to buy. Don't panic and go after the grand stories that professionals lay out for you. Any trading company would persuade to trade more(sell/buy often), this is because that's the best way they could survive. If you make loss or profit, they can still make their profit as long as you trade. Make your choices after you do proper market research because you know how you earn those bucks and how dear it is to lose in market.
Another good way for making good money while leaving it to the experts with minimum extra bucks spent for their expertise is called Mutual funds. Read more on SIP investments which would be best considering the fluctuations and making most out of it. To read more Click Here
Note:
I don't deny the fact that you know more than us and can enlighten us. Please leave your comment to help us all learn more and attack stock markets with more vigor.
Would like to share the detailed re-search report of Nifty for last 10 years which may not be appropriate as some what call it but this is all what I could gather. Thought of sharing the whole process with you guys to let you know what I understood looking at all those Nifty charts.
Before going into the boring statistics...let me quote here a famous dialogue from Michael Douglas in Wall Street(1987) - "Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind and greed"
I would also say greed is good if it doesn't harm others and uplifts your life and status. By the way, I am not that greedy. Let me put the facts right on your face now rather than beating around.
The average monthly movement seen in Nifty is 35 points up or down as per last ten years stats. Keeping this average of +/- 35, there had been 39 months out of 118 months where there had been a downward movement. 25 months which had negligible effect on the market and a whopping 66 months with upside trend.
I later decided to take +/- 100 points as a base to identify noteworthy above average movement in markets. There were 23 months in last 10 years until October this year(2010) where market had negative movements higher than -100 points against 43 months which had significant upsides of +100 & above.
The trend makes me speculate the few things for the following months for my fellow traders. I am not a master at this but just a novice speculator :-).
Nov 2010 - Not great for buying. Good to hold.
Dec 2010 - Not great for buying. Good to Sell towards end.
Jan 2011 - Market would lose few points, risky to buy.
Feb 2011 - Market would lose few points, risky to buy. Good to start looking.
Mar 2011 - Market would lose few points, risky to buy. Start Buying if you can take risk.
Apr 2011 - Would be average without significant changes.
I don't want you to blindly follow my views but would expect you to do your own analysis before buying any stocks. The above ideas are on Nifty movement and not on any particular stock. Every stock has its own trend which you need to closely analyze if you are to buy it.
If we are to take the facts laid out above seriously.
I would say we could lay out our own strategies. To get the thought process started lets discuss few ideas.
1. Consider you bought your scrips during bull market.(Assuming its a good stock)
a. During Bear, keep accumulating if you can
b. During Bull, hold/sell as per your need/strategy
2. Consider you bought your scripts during bear market. (Again assuming its a good stock.)
a. During bull, hold/sell as per your need/strategy
b. During bear, keep accumulating if you can
Basic idea I wanted to share is that market data shows, keep accumulating for your own good...because there are more time to sell than to buy. Don't panic and go after the grand stories that professionals lay out for you. Any trading company would persuade to trade more(sell/buy often), this is because that's the best way they could survive. If you make loss or profit, they can still make their profit as long as you trade. Make your choices after you do proper market research because you know how you earn those bucks and how dear it is to lose in market.
Another good way for making good money while leaving it to the experts with minimum extra bucks spent for their expertise is called Mutual funds. Read more on SIP investments which would be best considering the fluctuations and making most out of it. To read more Click Here
Note:
I don't deny the fact that you know more than us and can enlighten us. Please leave your comment to help us all learn more and attack stock markets with more vigor.
good statistics...... I want to take risk :)
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